It was two months prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six games, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more against United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
